This article is a fairly sane and reasonable assessment:

[1] http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/laird110608.html

The basic premise is that once the US consumer stops buying beyond their means, foreigner stop funding the deficit, then Treasuries go down the tube and the dollar tanks by 70% or more.

He says within 4 years, maybe in the next 2 years.

The flight to safety is lifting up 3-month Treasuries and the dollar, but as soon as popular attention focuses on inflation again, the flight to safety will find other places to go because the real rate of return in the US is already negative and will become more so.

The Euro is probably not a safe haven (it’ll fall with the USD), and neither is the Yen, which has no return at all. That leaves gold.

Jim Sinclair is asking his readers to take delivery of Comex contracts, and there are rumors of a default on December Gold at the Comex. Looks like the markets will take another dive and that could cause more de-leveraging, but I think gold will be ok. Weak, but ok, into mid-November.

Then watch out! We may see a big move up in December. Then early next year the real fireworks begin.