Currencies through mid-Jan 09

Here is a YouTube video of a Bloomberg interview with a currency specialist. Sounds quite reasonable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgJ2ZhBsY3w&feature=channel

Dollar weakness until mid-Jan, and Yen weakness (maybe to 98 against USD). Then Euro will weaken but not as much as the pound.

The level to watch is 80 on the USDX. There is likely a new crash in the markets by early March, and that might send the USD to 88.5 or beyond. This will weigh on gold, but it is hard to say how much, because gold is showing relative strength compared to the USD.

Eventually gold will not be so closely tied to the USD. Loss of confidence and inflationary expectations will drive gold hard, and the USD will follow in the opposite direction. Right now the forced de-leveraging is causing a temporary spike in the dollar and low in gold, but other forces will take over gold before too long.

However, we haven’t seen the bottom in equities yet, so after the end-of-year rally, watch out. Even after March, there will likely be another lower low coming in 2010. But maybe we’ll see a decent rally from March to end of next year, coincident with a dropping dollar and rising inflation expectations.

This entry was posted on 30/11/2008 at 07:32 am and is filed under Dollar Collapse. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.

| Print