27/08/2009 by Philinje.

Here is the latest from one of my favorite analysts, Clive Maund:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/maund082309.html

The last paragraph: 

The current increasingly bearish Silver COT picture is certainly a worry not just for silver bulls but also for gold bulls as well, and is a reason why, although we are now positioning ourselves for a gold breakout to new highs soon, we are open to the possibility that it may be preceded by a brief but violent shakeout which is why our long positions are protected by cheap Put options. Such a shakeout may be the “ambush” that we have suspected may take place for some time, which would enable the Big Money protagonists to achieve the double whammy of not only shaking the “little guy” out of his positions and mopping up his holdings, but covering their shorts and reversing positions ahead of “the big one”.

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16/08/2009 by Philinje.

Ron Rosen has revised his view of the coming correction in gold and thinks a low of $654 is possible. I wouldn’t say that here unless he expressed himself with high assurance of likelihood. Please be aware that Ron Rosen has been very bullish on gold and would only say something like this after serious consideration.

If you are 100% non-leveraged, meaning you own your investments completely, then the most to consider is lightening up. If you have used margin or leverage, please be super cautious and use stops diligently. In fact, unless you are a professional trader, using margin is foolish, period.

This low seems scheduled for early October so we won’t have to wait long. But if we get as low as $654, it may throw into question the parabolic move happening now as we thought previously. A low of $830 is a much more friendly outcome in terms of the parabolic move. So let’s see how far down gold goes.

This is completely in keeping with a possible crash in equities, which may cause the dollar and bonds to shoot up. The decline in gold depends on how much the dollar goes up, which may depend on how much panic erupts. Just something to keep in mind.

It is definitely prudent to lighten up on mining stocks and silver, which will be even more volatile than gold. But on the other hand, they corrected a lot harder last October so they may not come down as hard this time. In any case, mining stocks are subject to severe declines in market panics because they are accessible to ordinary investors.

If none of this comes to pass, then waiting for a positive signal like a new all-time high in gold (meaning higher than $1033) is the next step. It’s not such a bad thing to give up some potential profit (the difference between the price now and $1033+) to be safe. On the other hand, if a major correction does come to pass, taking some profits now is not such a bad thing in order to buy more cheaply in early October.

All this is dependent on your own risk profile and whether you are trading, investing, or using gold as insurance. Trading is only for those who can pay constant attention to the markets and have plenty of experience. So if you are not watching the markets daily, don’t trade. Maybe lighten up and buy more when prices come down - that’s investing. If you have gold or silver coins, they are likely acting as insurance so get more when prices come down.

Let’s see if gold goes lower into early October, and how low.

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08/08/2009 by Philinje.

Ron Rosen has issued a technical analysis that shows a likely conclusion to the contracting triangle we have been witnessing in gold. This means that a downside break is likely, reaching a bottom around $830 in early October. The trend before the triangle was up and so eventually that should re-assert itself, but a downside break is typical first.

The action in the USD yesterday seems to confirm that a short rally is in store for the dollar.

After the bottom in October for gold, the uptrend should resume and then it’s back to watching for the new all-time high to confirm the start of the parabolic move.

So short-term, keep stops on all positions and be cautious. Gold may move a bit higher but if it tops in the vicinity of the recent high at $1007 or lower, then we are due for a correction, and $830 is a likely target. It may have already topped at roughly $970.

There will most likely be some fireworks by end of year/early next, so in terms of holding onto core positions or physical gold, stay put. If you are using margin or leverage, be cautious and possibly lighten up. There will likely be a buying opportunity in early October.

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05/08/2009 by Philinje.

Right at the moment gold is gearing up to tackle $990. It might get there early next week.

The dollar is looking very weak, and the general market is looking strong. A target for the S&P is 1060. It may go higher than that. There are folks calling for a major crash into end of year. Some think a serious decline is due, but it may not exceed the latest bottom in March.

Sometime soon gold will exceed $1000 in a big way. Recently it has gone up with the general market because lately the dollar weakens when there is no panic. But things may change when the market declines later this year, as gold may revert back to its traditional role of safe haven. However, if there is flight into the dollar there may be some momentary weakness in gold.

So very short term, we may have some consolidation just under $1000. But before long gold will likely hit a new all-time high. That will be the signal that the parabolic rise has started. In the meantime, it’s holding relatively steady as the dollar has bounced feebly and is just hanging on for dear life.

In terms of the 30-year cycle, so far it still seems on track. No real fireworks yet as the assault on $1000 still gathers steam.

I’m currently looking into allocated and unallocated ownership of gold at the Perth Mint in western Australia. More on that soon.

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