It’s tough to remain objective in the best of cases, but in this case both sides seem to be equally plausible.

Rosen remains firm in his belief a major correction needs to be finished with a wave C down. He has pointed out various facts to support this and quite recently talked about the previous bull move in gold, from the early 70’s to 1980 when the big spike up ended at $850.

From early 1975 to late 1976, gold eeked out an expanded flat correction as its wave 4. Rosen thinks we are in the wave 4 now and a regular flat correction seems to be unfolding. This means the current top will be in the vicinity of $1033 and the C leg will end at roughly $680.

From that bottom in 1976, gold zoomed up in its spectacular wave 5. So Rosen thinks the same will happen this time. We just have to hit the C wave bottom first.

He doesn’t really care about the reasons why gold should keep heading up to $1500 etc. He says all the time he doesn’t care about the why. But recently he added that all the good news has already been discounted by the market. It’s quite possible there is other news, as of yet unknown, that will appear in the future and do things to the market then. That’s a pretty good point, and quite practical.

The other side of the picture is in the following article, which outlines recent developments that support gold’s strength:

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/3037?utm_source=streamsend&utm_medium=email&utm_content=6132441&utm_campaign=The%20Gold%20Report%20%u2502%20Gianni%20Kovacevic%3A%20Pro-Copper%20Crowd%20Grows

Most people tracking gold are citing the facts that are nicely summarized in this article. And yes, it makes sense that for all these reasons, gold should stay above $1000 and keep moving up. But good reasons are not enough to make a market do what it wants to do.

It’s a tough call.