You are currently browsing the Fintelligence weblog archives for December, 2009.
- Dollar Collapse (7)
- General (6)
- Gold (53)
- 26/02/2010: What a week - gold looks strong
- 09/02/2010: Neckline is holding
- 01/02/2010: Peak in April?
- 30/01/2010: Two weeks of risk aversion
- 10/01/2010: A new year, a new high?
- 20/12/2009: The next move
- 04/12/2009: NFP surprise, dollar up
- 30/11/2009: Oh my, Dubai
- 21/11/2009: Correction - $1168.70
- 19/11/2009: More on bonds
Archive for December 2009
The next move
20/12/2009 by Philinje.
Gold may have bottomed for now, or it may bottom this week. Projections for this decline range from $1030 to $1090. So far we hit $1095.
If we get to $1030, then the Rosen scenario is especially valid, and that would mean a subsequent high below $1227, the recent peak and all-time high. On the other hand, if gold stays above $1070, the next high could be $1300 or so, the projection from the reverse head and shoulders pattern. While a significant decline could follow a peak at this higher level, it would possibly not be as extreme as the $650 target Rosen is focused on.
The next high could be in late January - early February. So let’s see how high it goes.
Two articles by Clive Maund summarize a number of the points made here recently:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67
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NFP surprise, dollar up
04/12/2009 by Philinje.
The Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 11K lost jobs - way better than the expected 125K lost jobs. That put some fire under the dollar because suddenly it looks like a rate hike is back on the table.
So unfortunately, gold has taken a hit after it broke $1200 and $1220 over the past couple days. It spiked to below $1190. The Euro, GBP and Yen have spiked down against the dollar. Interestingly, Euro gold has come down a bit and is possibly forming a top. CHF (Swiss Franc) has also dropped against the dollar, which does not bode well for gold. Both CHF and gold are considered safe havens, but the ironic thing is a rising dollar may bring down equities, eventually.
For the moment, equities are zooming up. Maybe that will continue for a while until carry trade unwinding pressure builds (possibly at 80 or so on the dollar index).
The forex charts are looking extreme, like there is a decisive change in sentiment as regards the dollar. Let’s see what happens.
The bad news is, gold is behaving like a risk asset, as evidenced by the Dubai spike down, and now like a safe haven (essentially the opposite), as evidenced by this spike down. This underscores the speculative interest behind current prices.
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