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- Dollar Collapse (8)
- General (12)
- Gold (111)
- 03/09/2010: Job losses and risk sentiment
- 26/08/2010: New highs or a decline?
- 16/08/2010: Euro bounce - now or later?
- 11/08/2010: That was fast
- 11/08/2010: QE2, sort of
- 10/08/2010: Portfolio ideas
- 08/08/2010: Bonds agree with the Yen
- 06/08/2010: NFP disappoints, gold makes higher high
- 04/08/2010: More mining acquisitions?
- 04/08/2010: An excellent roadmap
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Archive for December 2009
The next move
20/12/2009 by Philinje.
Gold may have bottomed for now, or it may bottom this week. Projections for this decline range from $1030 to $1090. So far we hit $1095.
If we get to $1030, then the Rosen scenario is especially valid, and that would mean a subsequent high below $1227, the recent peak and all-time high. On the other hand, if gold stays above $1070, the next high could be $1300 or so, the projection from the reverse head and shoulders pattern. While a significant decline could follow a peak at this higher level, it would possibly not be as extreme as the $650 target Rosen is focused on.
The next high could be in late January - early February. So let’s see how high it goes.
Two articles by Clive Maund summarize a number of the points made here recently:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67
Posted in Gold | Print | No Comments »
NFP surprise, dollar up
04/12/2009 by Philinje.
The Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 11K lost jobs - way better than the expected 125K lost jobs. That put some fire under the dollar because suddenly it looks like a rate hike is back on the table.
So unfortunately, gold has taken a hit after it broke $1200 and $1220 over the past couple days. It spiked to below $1190. The Euro, GBP and Yen have spiked down against the dollar. Interestingly, Euro gold has come down a bit and is possibly forming a top. CHF (Swiss Franc) has also dropped against the dollar, which does not bode well for gold. Both CHF and gold are considered safe havens, but the ironic thing is a rising dollar may bring down equities, eventually.
For the moment, equities are zooming up. Maybe that will continue for a while until carry trade unwinding pressure builds (possibly at 80 or so on the dollar index).
The forex charts are looking extreme, like there is a decisive change in sentiment as regards the dollar. Let’s see what happens.
The bad news is, gold is behaving like a risk asset, as evidenced by the Dubai spike down, and now like a safe haven (essentially the opposite), as evidenced by this spike down. This underscores the speculative interest behind current prices.
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