Today’s NFP: a joke

04/06/2010 by Philinje.

Earlier in the week Obama leaked the news that today’s jobs report, aka Non-Farm Payrolls, would be strong. Everyone was expecting the one-time adding of census workers to be part of the number, but it turned out to be almost the whole number! I think this little episode speaks volumes about how desperate Obama must feel and how tenuous the recovery argument really is.

It looks like there has been very low volume in gold this week, which is concerning. And yesterday, the big boys took gold down a few notches toward $1200 just in case the NFP number disappointed the market. Well, they were right, but so far there hasn’t been any big move in gold. In fact, it seems to be stuck just above $1200.

Well, that is a dent in the argument that gold is behaving like a safe haven. Heck, earlier today the Euro dropped below 121 on worries that Hungary would face a sovereign debt crisis. And hardly a blip in gold. Very strange indeed. Silver is getting seriously whacked but volume is still pretty low in both metals.

Hmm. My plan is to give gold until late this month, and then start moving aside. There is too much risk out there in the markets, and if things get very ugly, gold could suffer, albeit less than other assets. The point is we could see some very strong moves in the dollar and Yen if markets start swooning in an even bigger way than currently.

There are some cycle theories that talk about a major crash in mid-August. If you’re really brave, you could hang on till then, but I suspect we’ll see some evidence of major weakness before then.

On the other hand, Martin Armstrong just released a report that talks about strong markets this summer and that there may be weakness but no crash in August.

Take your pick. It’s a crazy world.

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