For those familiar with Casey Research, there is a free article of the Gold & Silver Report that you can read here:

[1] http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jclark072010.html

This shows the lowest, average and smallest levels of decline to expect this summer. That means this month and August. The smallest declines have already been exceeded. Here are the average and lowest levels:

Gold - $1127, $968

Silver - $16.39, $12.78

Are the lowest levels likely? Not enough to hold your powder dry. As I said last time, I can see $1040 as a stopping point in gold. The reasons are:

- that is the level of the last all-time high in 2008

- that is the level of the Head and Shoulders neckline, meaning the bulls will defend it tooth and nail

- that is for all intents and purposes just above $1000 and I suspect even if we touch $1000 it will be brief

So there you have it. Again, trading is not recommended. But if you’re like Jim Sinclair, you could sell 1/3 near a high and load up again on sudden plunges. That’s trading but it’s only 1/3. The plunges may be brief.