09/07/2010 by Philinje.

A dealer of gold and silver has an interesting report on the value of currencies around the world relative to gold. Here is the latest that covers the first half of 2010:

http://goldsilver.com/newsletters/newsID/8580/ref/1

There isn’t a single case where the value rose against gold and in most cases the loss is well into double digits! That’s a nice affirmation of why people like me are promoting gold as a store of value. Also check out the chart at the bottom of that page showing the prior gold bull against the Nasdaq bubble against the current gold bull.

For a bit of international intrigue, here is a longish interview with a smart guy who sees geopolitical reality in financial terms, and basically concludes that Russia and Euroland could easily establish a gold-backed alternative to the dollar:

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp

Finally, there has been some news recently reported in the Wall Street Journal about central banks backing loans from the Bank for International Settlements with gold. There have even been theories circulating that this news is the reason why gold took a sudden dive at the end of last week. Well, the WSJ updated the story to say commercial banks, not central banks got the loans. That’s probably BS because commercial banks wouldn’t have that much gold and they typically act as agents for entities like central banks, when it’s convenient for the originating party to hide its tracks.

There’s a loose statement toward the end of the article that could have scared the market, about what happens if the banks can’t repay the loans - the gold ends up on the open market. Sounds to me like a journalist speculating on something someone said. Whatever. Even when central banks sell their gold on the open market, the price usually rises shortly thereafter. And if it’s commercial banks, why would they insist on losing money by not paying back their loans, since all currencies are dropping relative to gold (see the first article, above)?

Make of this what you will:

http://www.gata.org/node/8799

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07/07/2010 by Philinje.

As a follow-up to my post yesterday, here is a great article on the recent history of Iran. Don’t be too shocked. A good friend in the UK told me some of the same stuff and he spent 30 years in the British Army.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LG01Ak02.html

There are a couple of support levels in gold related to 38.2% retracements, depending on how you measure them. One is at 1193 or so and the other is at 1182. We got down to 1185 today. Could this be it?

Here is someone who gives some technical reasons why this might be the bottom:

http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2010/07/sp-500-gld-and-gdx-down-more-or-now-up.html

Finally, I found a fairly balanced article on China that is not long and covers a lot of reasonable ground. The debate about China is endless, and considering a lot of hiccups in equities right now are hinged on perceptions of China, this might be worth a read:

http://www.streetauthority.com/node/456310

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06/07/2010 by Philinje.

Talk about a world of contradictions.

The Euro has resumed its rally and just as a rough guess could be headed to 1.30. It was due a relief bounce. That’s taking the wind out of Euro gold and dollar gold is following suit.

Contrast that with the sanctions against Iran Obama signed on July 1. Is that situation getting ugly? Maybe you never realized how ugly. Check this out:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20008

Now the big question is, will gold rally this month or drop further? Or both? Seasonal tendencies say a drop is likely, but you never know.

The Yen pairs are not showing a lot of risk appetite, that’s for sure. We could have a relief bounce in equities and the Euro this week, then another surge down. Or equities could ride a wave up for a while. For now, Euro up means gold down. And then things could explode in Iran.

Regardless, it seems that gold has not finished its up trend. Maybe there is some temporary weakness, but eventually it will get past $1250. The question is, can you survive until then? Looking at the daily chart, it looks like a trend change has started and that could mean $1150. At least that’s how the banks are painting the chart. But given the current state of the world, gold could turn around in a big hurry at any time.

It’s definitely time to put stops in place, if you haven’t done so already. Maybe not yet time to abandon ship, in terms of trading only (only the very brave and dedicated should be trading gold). This being gold, always be prepared for a vicious drop. If one happens, the good news is it’s a great buying opportunity.

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01/07/2010 by Philinje.

Here’s quite a compelling article on how gold may be entering a run to the upside in July:

http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2010/06/gld-gdx-and-slv-does-november-2009.html

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01/07/2010 by Philinje.

Looks like the 30% drop in pending home sales in the US has given the Euro and pound a bid (actually a pretty massive 260 pip jump in the Euro), which took the wind out of Euro gold. There must have been some good news in Euroland as well. That knocked dollar gold down to $1225-ish, but a weak dollar should be good for dollar gold.

Who knows anymore what a safe haven is? Equities are tanking and it looks like the S&P is headed for 1010, an important retracement level.

To take your mind off the momentary carnage, here is an overview of the mess we are in right now:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/how-policy-errors-cause-depressions-and.html

I like this author and the fact he is critiquing Paul Krugman is secondary to the superb big picture view he presents.

And to really take your mind off the current breakdown, here is the big picture on gold:

http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com/2010/06/gold-silver-nearing-major-breakout.html

A major breakout within a few months? Sure, could happen. But staying sane till then is the question.

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