Archive for 06/08/2010

NFP disappoints, gold makes higher high

The disappointing Noon-Farm Payrolls report today has pushed the dollar toward 80 and gold has broken above its last high of $1204. It seems to be resting at $1206 and if it can close above $1204 today, it will be back in an uptrend.

So chances are next Monday or Tuesday will be a top, not a bottom, and then if gold comes down and holds above $1160, it will be fully confirmed in a new uptrend. Let’s see what happens by end of next week.

The good news today is that gold is clearly acting as a safe haven. The dollar is not. The US economy is definitely in question. If things get really ugly, we might see the dollar go up, but maybe gold will go up too. 

The Euro could be headed to 1.36, while the Yen is getting stronger. We are at levels now, though, where currencies could turn, and the dollar could bounce off 80. So I remain a bit cautious on gold as we enter the second half of August.

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