You are currently browsing the Fintelligence weblog archives for the day 03/09/2010.
| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| « Aug | Oct » | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
| 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | |||
- Dollar Collapse (17)
- General (24)
- Gold (186)
- 06/06/2011: The recovery failed
- 26/05/2011: Silver again
- 13/05/2011: $450 silver and $12,000 gold
- 11/05/2011: Oh well
- 09/05/2011: Some explanations
- 06/05/2011: NFP surprises
- 05/05/2011: Hi ho silver!
- 04/05/2011: Gold hits support and can still hit new high
- 04/05/2011: Is the top in? Maybe not
- 02/05/2011: Margin requirements take down silver
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- August 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
Archive for 03/09/2010
Job losses and risk sentiment
03/09/2010 by Philinje.
This morning’s NFP said job losses were not as bad as expected, and job gains in the private sector were slightly larger than expected.
The immediate result was a spike in risk appetite and and decline in gold. The dollar moved down and the Yen pairs moved up but have drifted down again. Even though oil fell, CAD is up against the dollar. And even though gold fell, AUD is up against the dollar and Yen.
Gold has bumped up against its recent all-time high this week, but it now looks like that level has been rejected. We could be in for a decline that’s signficant, though it’s too early to tell. Silver, on the other hand, is holding up and this week almost got to its last high near $20.
Considering that silver is especially vulnerable to manipulation, thanks to a highly concentrated and obscenely large short position by two banks, it seems to be holding strong. However, this may be due to the current sense that the economy may be ok, as seen in the new rally in equities. The S&P broke above 1100 this morning but has since drifted lower. That level could be a high-water mark in the months ahead. Or maybe we have a real rally unfolding.
One roadmap of the near-term future is as follows:
Equities stage a minor rally for a week or two. Then they fall again, and a market event - black swan, if you will - causes a big decline, scaring everyone into thinking about deflation. Gold may go down in that wave. Then the Fed announces full-blown Quantitative Easing, round 2 (or 3 if the current half measure is round 2), and that causes some move up in equities. But the dollar, after spiking in the crash, then drops like a stone and gold starts its final run to the heavens.
I kind of hope it plays out that way because it would be an excellent way to ride gold. But this is conjecture. The dollar is weak enough right now, and yet again we see gold dropping against a rising Euro. So we may see gold act as a safe haven during a general crash. And then, there may be no crash and equities conclusively prove they are on the recovery path.
Summer officially ends on Monday in the US. Then traders are back to work in force and volumes should pick up. The rest of this month should be interesting. The true reality should be evident soon.
Posted in Gold | Print | No Comments »