Gold bounced on Wed as the FOMC meeting ended - actually the bounce started a couple hours before the meeting minutes were released. But then yesterday it got whacked again and hit a new low near $1310.

Technically, this looks bad, especially if price can’t get above $1320 today. Most people would think gold will touch the 200-day moving average at around $1280. But it doesn’t have to.

The 144-day moving average is the one that gold has been touching over the past couple years before moving back up. And guess what - that is currently at $1311, so gold just touched it!

Silver was supposed to be at a cycle low on Wed, which looked spot on. Then yesterday, it got taken down to a new low near $26.40, but just briefly, and it bounced back. Silver looks like it kept close to its low on Wed.

In addition, the gold stocks took a beating on Thursday but they did not give up all their gains from Wed. So they bounced and stayed above their Wed low.

Silver looks like it could bounce from here, and that might let gold bounce as well. Oil took a beating this week, as did commodities generally, and the Euro pushed above 1.37. But maybe the Euro has finally hit its local top and will start to fall. This should be gold-positive.

There is still a chance we will see one more rally in gold by mid-Feb. Equities might also rally and then a larger correction will happen in March-April. Silver is potentially due for a hard drop, as the silver:gold ratio has been showing weakness in silver. But it might rally first. The next couple weeks could be a good chance to sell into strength.