09/02/2011 by Philinje.

Here is a site that was referred to by Ed Steer in his email today. The site is called the Daily Bail and the top story today is about the bailout of a Danish bank in which the bondholders got a haircut of 41%.

“Debt & Deficit Portal. Bailout News. Federal Reserve Corruption.” That’s the tag line. Fabulous!

http://dailybail.com/home/amagerbanken-28-billion-bank-failure-in-denmark-senior-bondh.html

The thesis of this article is that once this trend takes hold, there will be pain for bondholders everywhere. Somehow that sounds gold-positive.

Looks like gold is holding above $1360, and could have a near-term target of $1380, which would fulfill the recent inverse head and shoulder pattern. Silver is much closer to its all-time high and is currently tapping on $30.50.  It may have a near-term target of $30.60, but I wonder if it will just push all the way to $31 before taking a breather.

If equities continue to rally, despite all the signs of an impending decline, then silver and mining stocks could remain strong, maybe for a week or two. Bernanke’s comments are just hitting the wires - let’s see what happens.

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08/02/2011 by Philinje.

Today we’re seeing a break in the daily pattern of sell-offs at 10am NY time / 3pm London time, the time of the London afternoon gold fix. Typically we see traders sell off into the London close (some would say the bullion banks push prices down at that time).

But today, silver spiked a bit going into the NY open then moved up pretty hard into 10am and has moved even higher into 10:30am. Remember how on Friday after the NFP report, gold and silver began to climb, then got sold off hard right after 10am. In fact, it’s 10:30am right now and silver is pushing into $30.

Feels to me like the beginning of a hard move up. Whether it becomes a big move is another question. Gold is lagging silver and so it might not get as high. The recent all-time highs around $1440 gold and $31.25 silver are certainly targets. But time limits due to cycles indicate a week or two at most for this move, so we’ll have to see how high each of these metals can get.

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04/02/2011 by Philinje.

The unempoyment rate dropped from 9.4% to 9%, while payrolls increased only 36K against an expectation of 145K. In the initial trading, the market took this as dollar negative, but then reversed and it seems the direction will be dollar positive, at least slightly.

This means the Euro is dropping and Euro gold is of course rising. But in dollar terms, gold is more or less holding steady around $1350. If it can stay above $1345 today, that would signal a reversal in trend, in both daily and weekly timeframes. Silver is already back to previous highs near $29 and gold stocks are too, with the HUI hitting 530 yesterday.

Yesterday there was some powerful buying in gold and silver, and the dollar. It’s quite possible we will see gold gunning for its recent highs in the next week or two. But after that, there might be some problems with general equities and commodities might take a fall, which could be bad for silver.

Now that the Feb NFP is out of the way, we can see how much energy will be shown in near-term market moves, and so far that seems tepid. Gold did not head down again before heading up, and the ambiguous NFP is not adding a lot of fuel for a big move. So we might see a slight move up before everything tanks for the summer.

This summer should see some good buying opportunities as gold gathers strength for the next phase of its bull market. Some folks were hoping for $1600 right now or soon, but if that doesn’t happen, we could get there toward year end. And it’s quite possible we’ll see some deep corrections across the board this summer.

Here is an interesting piece on why commodities are booming. Inflation is alive and well, and hard assets are relentlessly heading up. So even prices decline significantly this summer, the bull run ain’t over.

http://www.fgmr.com/real-reason-for-rising-commodity-prices.html

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04/02/2011 by Philinje.

Yesterday the Euro got slammed as Trichet talked down inflation and quelled speculation about an interest rate hike in the near future. That could have been the top, but it all depends on the NFP report in a few minutes.

No one seems to notice that gold is inverse to the Euro these days. So gold and the dollar go up together. This has happened for certain periods of time in recent years. Right now it seems that the Euro is the most vulnerable of the three major currencies, and that is driving the flight into hard currency.

Just a theory. Let’s see what happens shortly. More dollar strength could be in the cards, which could be good for gold.

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01/02/2011 by Philinje.

Two likely scenarios: 1) gold moves up tepidly from here and we get a moderate bounce, or 2) it drops down again to “burn in” the $1300 level bottom and heads up strongly. I kinda prefer the latter.

The action yesterday seems to be a little bit of relaxation after the scare caused by the Egypt riots on Friday. But still, gold held up ok and silver even better. There are bottoming signals in silver and the gold mining stocks.

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